The HOMAGE project aims to establish and validate a European reference framework that integrates social sciences, cognitive modelling and artificial intelligence to strengthen decision-making under pressure. HOMAGE will (i) capture and model human cognition and behaviour under stress through the Cognition under Pressure dataset and Cognitive State Prediction Model, (ii) develop a Multi-Dimensional Risk Assessment Model for cascading and compounding threats, and (iii) combine them in interoperable tools for forecasting, adaptive decision support, privacy-preserving insider-risk monitoring, crisis playback and scenario-based resilience training. Three real-world pilots in the energy, transport and digital sectors will validate the approach under operational conditions. HOMAGE contributes directly to the objectives of the Horizon Europe Cluster 3 INFRA work programme by advancing human-centred, trustworthy and ethically compliant AI solutions for critical infrastructure resilience. It delivers tools, datasets, governance frameworks and policy recommendations that enable faster recovery, improved coordination and stronger public trust in essential European services.

MKLab participates in HOMAGE, with its main contribution focused on a task regarding pre-crisis forecasting and early warning. The team leads the development of the Forecasting and Early Detection Suite, combining predictive analytics, weak-signal detection and adversarial-risk modelling to identify emerging threats to critical infrastructures. The suite will use systemic-risk intelligence from the CIFM foundation model, incorporating feedback prompts to obtain updated predictions and assessments of how disruptions may propagate across interconnected infrastructures. MKLab will develop and evaluate initial prototypes using synthetic data, then incorporate validated systemic-risk and cognitive-state model outputs to generate interpretable forecasts and actionable early warnings. These outputs will support the Resilience Foresight Dashboard and provide forecasting information to HOMAGE’s operational tools for crisis management.